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O  =+Radiological Weapons: Threats and Responses,,(Outline%What you can do to reduce this threat&&$ What are radiological weapons?  Understanding the Threat$CAUSING PANIC and FEAR(2Other motivations for using a radiological weapon?33(" An RDD poses the fewest technical barriers " Radiological material is readily available " In nearly every country " Concealable " Portable " Massive economic impact " Resulting in area denial " Potentially the most expensive environmental decontamination cleanup in US history " Portray the government as powerless and weak " Coerce a population through fear or traumatization"+"+  ""  "  $$("(,,v0"0-4458"8q 0Why radiological weapons are not nuclear weapons41"("("(%$Where does the confusion come from?%%3The probability of a radiological terrorist attack44"(^Average median and estimate of risk were 25-27 percent likeliness to occur in the next five years; and 40 percent likeness over the next ten years. The respondents judged of the probability of a radiological attack over the next five years greater than the probability for a nuclear or biological attack, and was twice as probable over ten years.2_ ] Preventing the RDD scenario " "(8Maintain and increase regulation of sources Ensure accountability in border and transportation security Increase training for border security and detection equipment Increase efforts to recover abandoned, orphan sources Provide increased regulatory assistance to States lacking effective cradle-to-grave controls9Z9 Preparedness and Response Reducing the nation s vulnerability to radiological weapons attackCC"(Contact InformationXFor More Information on Individual Preparedness " CDC,  Frequently Asked Questions about a Radiation Emergency : www.bt.cdc.gov " RAND,  Individual Preparedness and Response to a Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks " Department of Homeland Security website: www.dhs.govx0PP0 N" t" 5",q /P  !& ' * -0   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> bZ(    6J  `} J T Click to edit Master title style! !  0  ` J RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S  0, ^ `  >*  0p0 pP   *Courtney Stewart Institute for Defense & Disarmament Studies Harvard University, Managing the Atom Projectll  0д ^ `  @*  c TA.IDDSAnnvLogoBlueLtBlue" ` hn  Hv޽h @ ?"@` 3380___PPT10.@%L Default Design 0 zr (    0(:  P   :  P*    0:     :  R*  d  c $ ?  :   0:   0 :  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     S  6D:  _P  :  P*    6(:  _  :  R*  H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10._%>4  0L0  (    c $`T `}<$ 0   :   c $U   Nonproliferation and Disarmament The Way Forward 22 October 20050B "!  c $P <$ 0  JPresentation at NONPROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT THE WAY FORWARD, a Symposium at MIT on 21 22 October 2005 marking the 25th Anniversary of the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies and the Nuclear Freeze Movement Panel on Threats and Responses Courtney Stewart, Research Associate, Institute for Defense & Disarmament Studies and Harvard University, Managing the Atom Project If you use of cite this presentation, please inform the author. Tel:617/354-4337, Email: stewart@idds.org.4P0"n  H ޽h @ ?"` 33&___PPT10..L+!;mDV' '= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DH' =%(%(D' =%(D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*+p+0+0 ++0+0 +  0L0 ld@ (    S x:  `0<$ 0  :     S  #0` Q  :  @The Radiological Threat " What are radiological weapons? " Why they are not nuclear weapons " The probability of a rad weapon " Why employ radiological weapons?"""!"" "" ""s+   c $%#0p Q  # ~Response to Radiological Weapons " Preventing this scenario " Preparedness and Response " Reducing our vulnerabilityx!U!""""""   S d/#  <$ 0 # H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10..s+0D' '= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(%(D' =%(D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(D@' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<* &%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<* &+p+0+0 ++0+ 0 +<  0 SK@(  r  S (<#}  #    c $=# @  # |DRadiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Radiation-Emitting Device (RED) ED  c $@#@p :  U Think in terms of any method meant to deliberately disperse radioactive material VV   S D#0 P  # ?Attack on a nuclear facility or Radiological Dispersal Device>@  c $J#`@ # _)Using radiation to maliciously cause harm** l   0P# @p~  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.Pn+D=' '= @B +~   0 xp` (    S \# `}<$ 0  #   c $X^#p 0  # h" Radioisotope choice " alpha, beta, gamma " Half-Life " Amount of radioactive energy " Accessibility " Reaction with the environment " Biological effects " Amount of radioactive material""""  #"" " $$("(("(Z   S m#`   # " Amount of explosives " Weather " Wind, Humidity " Terrain " Region flat? By the ocean? " Level of Emergency Response }""" """"""  "" "   6{# PH PWhat is the single greatest motive for a terrorist to use a radiological weapon?Q(Q$H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10..+ۥD' '= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D' =%(%(D' =%(D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*+8+0+0 +   0 F(  r  S <# `}  #   TA panicP  #H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.UN+D=' '= @B +|   0 @#(  r  S ̕# `}  #   c $Н# # =Source: Gerald Holton, Reflections on Modern Terrorism (2002),>x  c $\#0p  # H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.b+D=' '= @B +  0  $(  $r $ S ж# `}  #  $ c $8#p # tzNuclear Weapon " nuclear chain reaction " explosion creates imploding shock wave " critical mass Radiological Weapon " no nuclear yield " conventional explosive mixed radioactive materialSG" "   " " " "2  $ S RA4dirty bomb illistration 2  #z  $ S :Anuclear blast  #H $ 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.~5+D=' '= @B +   0   (  x  c $# `}  #   S #`P  # |," Not understanding the threat " Not understanding radiation " Experts lack of common terminology " Improvised Radiological Weapon " Weapon of Mass Destruction " Weapon of Mass Effect " Weapon of Mass Disruption " Common factor radiation groups them often as a single threat4!""H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.\ +D=' '= @B +m  0 |((  (r ( S X# `}  #  ( S p#0 # |>Lugar Survey on Proliferation Threats and Responses, June 2005"?>x ( c $0#0 # H ( 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i. +D=' '= @B +K  0 bZ<(  <r < S   `   r < S X P    < S #@p  `*Secure all high-risk radiological material+Z+H < 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.ྙ|+D=' '= @B +  0 DO(  Dr D S  `}    D S  @p   Increase realistic first responder awareness training for a radiological weapon scenario Increase efforts to improve and standardize radiation detection equipment x D S #`@   RDD poses unique risks and challenges to the first responder community; federal programs and initiatives designated since 9/11 solely for the enhancement of preparedness and response efforts for a radiological dirty bombH D 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.u+D=' '= @B +  0 0L>(  Lr L S /}    L c $41P # PYou can reduce this threat( L S P3`p  n8By understanding the threat and responding appropriately99 L S p7p  ( RDD awareness through public education will decrease the probability of the threat occurring by removing the expected terrorist outcome mass panicking, causing disruption, confusion, and fear can thus decrease a population s vulnerability to the possible effects of an RDDB 7 QH L 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.s+D=' $= @B +z  0 `X!(  Xr X S pF `}    X c $8L@  !Courtney Stewart stewart@idds.org$" x X c $P   H X 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.@@ +D=' $= @B +  0 (  X  C    :   S :  0  :   Good Afternoon It is a pleasure to have this opportunity to speak with you on this urgent threat The purpose of this presentation is to provide you with a clearer understanding of radiological weapons and thus lead to a reduction to our vulnerability to this threatH  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.&> 0 zrd (  dX d C    r d S a 0   H d 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.m 0 zrp (  pX p C    r p S lf 0   H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.5Һ  0 X P |(  |X | C    P | S | 0   In June 2005, the Lugar Survey, commissioned by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, surveyed more than 80 non-proliferation and national security experts on the possibility of a WMD attack who collectively found the risk of a radiological attack was the most likely of any WMD threat. The Survey reported a median 25-27 percent likeliness of a radiological terrorist act to occur in the next five years, and 40 percent likeness over the next ten years.[1] The median estimate of the probability of a radiological attack over ten years was twice as high as the estimate for a nuclear or biological attack during the same period.[2] A radiological attack against America s national interests is a real and plausible threat. The survey was based on 85 responses by top scholars, policy makers, diplomats, and technicians devoted to the study and practice of non-proliferation. X 0X 0X 0H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.7pH3<  0 L(  X  C      S H 0   NHow do we prevent this possible scenario? Here are a few ways Accountability, maintenance, and increased regulation to control radiological sources Controlling rad sources is difficult as radioisoptes have legitimate uses worldwide. , "H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.<dz  0    (  X  C       S ` 0    They are a means of inflicting violence using radiation as a means to cause harm, and has the power to terrify and to become an instrument of terrorists. Main types of radiological terrorism involve attack on a nuclear facility, such as a nuclear power plant; or using a radiologioical despersal device A strong Radiation-Emitting Device (RED) could be place in a high profile area, and could expose a large number of people to the radioactive source for a short period of time OR use of an RED to expose a limited number of people over a long period This presentation will mainly focus on RDDs, however, much of what I m going to say relates to attack of a nuclear facility or during the transport of radiological material Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) are more popularly referred to as  dirty bombs, which combines conventional explosives and radiological material If you can imagine a scenario for dispersing harmful radiation to the public, that is a radiological weapon -Commonly thought forms: truck bomb, dispersing aerosolized forms of radioactive material though a ventilation system, placing a radioactive source in a trash can in an airport > )7H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.> gd 0 pt(  X  C      S  0   vPeople often confuse radiological and nuclear weapons; an that is to be expected as most of us are not health physics A Nuclear Weapon is a sophisticated mechanism that creates a nuclear chain reaction using uranium 235 or plutonium 239. In a fission bomb, an explosion produce an imploding shock wave that drives the plutonium together creating a critical mass is resulting in a fission reaction that causes the bomb to explode with tremendous force, sending high-energy electomagnetic waves and fallout into the air. A rad dirty bomb, the most commonly known radiological weapon confused with a nuclear weapon is an explosion that that generates a pulse of heat that vaporizes or aerolizes radioactive material and propels it That is why when experts talk about rad weapons and dirty bomb, it is referred to as a weapon of mass disruption, and a nuclear weapon as a Weapon of mass destruction One possible RDD, a dirty bomb an illustration of one, When the secondary device detonates, the blast shockwave disperses and propels radioactive material, dust, smoke and other material into the surrounding area. A single or a few RDD detonations would cause minimal causalities; rather the conventional explosion would have greater immediate lethality than the radioactive material. Those severely injured would be the closest to the explosion, and also be among the most severely externally and internally contaminated with radionuclides. The radiological source greatly impacts the effectiveness  b# I >H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.Ip> 0 N(  X  C      S 0 0`  H@___PPT9" There are a number of factors that determine the security risk of a radiological weapon and how you measure its effectiveness Chemistry Lesson There are nearly 100 natural elements in our environment, and another dozen created by scientists Each element comes in different forms, called isotopes, which are either stable or unstable, these unstable ones are called radioisotopes because they emit radiation and decay until they are stable Some of these radioisotopes, or radiological material, would be more ideally suited than others for a number of reason which help characterize why some pose higher security risks than others The type of ionizing radiation produced by the radioisotope varies their ability to penetrate materials Most alpha radiation or alpha particles can be stopped by a piece of paper or dead skin For most beta radiation a thin piece of aluminum or glass will stop them To block gamma radiation, the most penetrating, requires thick concrete or lead The decay rate, the rate at which the radioisotope becomes stable again, is characterized by the concept of half-life, which is amount of time required for half of it to decayL~h" " z  H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L^J 0 Z(  X  C      S  0   \,Lack of accepted terminology confuses people--H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.]@My 0 PH (  X  C    H  S ` 0   People do not understand the threat, they hear  radiation and imagines of Hiroshima and Nagaski, come to mind. Those were horrible tragedies that one would naturally be frightened to face, however a dirty bomb or other form of a radiological dispersal device are very different weapons Terrorists are expecting people to  $DYH  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.`a 0 XPP(  X  C    P  S $ 0   All in all, an RDD provides terrorist s optimal results: creating fear, intimidation, to paralyze commerce and portray the government as powerless or weak; with fewer barriers than chemical, biological, or nuclear weaponsH  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.c=K 0 nf(  X  C    $f  S 4 $ 0  $ You can also participate in community exercises, so that you are able to help one another Citizen Corps, Homeland Security s grassroots program, localizes Ready s preparedness messages and provides local opportunities for citizens to get emergency response training; participate in community exercises; and volunteer to support local emergency responders. iiH  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.qUUr0C},; `{&JPxcnqJuy024XڣF$PM]i޵_*--1;(     #_ftn1  #_ftn2&#_ftnref2/ 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0ܖ" B$ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` \T( n  II@ADF  I JOQSVY\_ab gh  ln qrtu    Ob$yqX! z8R:3b$X.us؏N:3R$%jxY y؁3 GR$UoBeM/Rt7| R 0AAP!xI33@,~ ʚ;\*ʚ;g47d7dt Jx: 0nppp@ <4dddd  0TJ <4!d!d  0Tg4:d:dXw'x: 0p@ pp80___PPT10 ?  O  =+Radiological Weapons: Threats and Responses,,(Outline%What you can do to reduce this threat&&$ What are radiological weapons?  Understanding the Threat$CAUSING PANIC and FEAR(2Other motivations for using a radiological weapon?33(" An RDD poses the fewest technical barriers " Radiological material is readily available " In nearly every country " Concealable " Portable " Massive economic impact " Resulting in area denial " Potentially the most expensive environmental decontamination cleanup in US history " Portray the government as powerless and weak " Coerce a population through fear or traumatization"+"+  ""  "  $$("(,,v0"0-4458"8q 0Why radiological weapons are not nuclear weapons41"("("(%$Where does the confusion come from?%%3The probability of a radiological terrorist attack44"(^Average median and estimate of risk were 25-27 percent likeliness to occur in the next five years; and 40 percent likeness over the next ten years. The respondents judged of the probability of a radiological attack over the next five years greater than the probability for a nuclear or biological attack, and was twice as probable over ten years.2_ ] Preventing the RDD scenario " "(8Maintain and increase regulation of sources Ensure accountability in border and transportation security Increase training for border security and detection equipment Increase efforts to recover abandoned, orphan sources Provide increased regulatory assistance to States lacking effective cradle-to-grave controls9Z9 Preparedness and Response Reducing the nation s vulnerability to radiological weapons attackCC"(Contact InformationXFor More Information on Individual Preparedness " CDC,  Frequently Asked Questions about a Radiation Emergency : www.bt.cdc.gov " RAND,  Individual Preparedness and Response to a Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks " Department of Homeland Security website: www.dhs.govx0PP0 N" t" 5",q /l  !& ' * -.  0 DO(  Dr D S  `}    D S  @p   Increase realistic first responder awareness training for a radiological weapon scenario Increase efforts to improve and standardize radiation detection equipment x D S #`@   RDD poses unique risks and challenges to the first responder community; federal programs and initiatives designated since 9/11 solely for the enhancement of preparedness and response efforts for a radiological dirty bombH D 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.u+D=' '= @B + 0 zr (  X  C   !"#$%&'()*+,-./123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)Pͻ$Pictures_Current User5SummaryInformation(UPowerPoint Document(0bDocumentSummaryInformation8p  @@`` TL  k  II@ADF  I JOQSVY\_ab gh  ln qrtu    Ob$yqX! z8R:3b$X.us؏N:3R$%jxY y؁3 GR$UoBeM/Rt7| R 0AAP!xI33@w,~ ʚ;\*ʚ;g47d7dt Jx: 0nppp@ <4dddd  0TJ <4!d!d  0T80___PPT10 ?  O  =+Radiological Weapons: Threats and Responses,,(Outline%What you can do to reduce this threat&&$ What are radiological weapons?  Understanding the Threat$CAUSING PANIC and FEAR(2Other motivations for using a radiological weapon?33(" An RDD poses the fewest technical barriers " Radiological material is readily available " In nearly every country " Concealable " Portable " Massive economic impact " Resulting in area denial " Potentially the most expensive environmental decontamination cleanup in US history " Portray the government as powerless and weak " Coerce a population through fear or traumatization"+"+  ""  "  $$("(,,v0"0-4458"8q 0Why radiological weapons are not nuclear weapons41"("("(%$Where does the confusion come from?%%3The probability of a radiological terrorist attack44"(^Average median and estimate of risk were 25-27 percent likeliness to occur in the next five years; and 40 percent likeness over the next ten years. The respondents judged of the probability of a radiological attack over the next five years greater than the probability for a nuclear or biological attack, and was twice as probable over ten years.2_ ] Preventing the RDD scenario " "(8Maintain and increase regulation of sources Ensure accountability in border and transportation security Increase training for border security and detection equipment Increase efforts to recover abandoned, orphan sources Provide increased regulatory assistance to States lacking effective cradle-to-grave controls9Z9 Preparedness and Response Reducing the nation s vulnerability to radiological weapons attackCC"(Contact InformationXFor More Information on Individual Preparedness " CDC,  Frequently Asked Questions about a Radiation Emergency : www.bt.cdc.gov " RAND,  Individual Preparedness and Response to a Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks " Department of Homeland Security website: www.dhs.govx0PP0 N" t" 5",q /P  !& ' * -J  0L0  (    c $`T `}<$ 0   :   c $U   Nonproliferation and Disarmament The Way Forward 22 October 20050B "!  c $P <$ 0  `Presentation at NONPROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT THE WAY FORWARD, a Symposium at MIT on 21 22 October 2005 marking the 25th Anniversary of the Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies and the Nuclear Freeze Movement Panel on Threats and Responses Courtney Stewart, Research Associate, Institute for Defense & Disarmament Studies and Harvard University, Managing the Atom Project If you use of cite this presentation, please inform the author. Tel: 617/354-4337, Email: stewart@idds.org.4P0", n  H ޽h @ ?"` 33&___PPT10..L+!;mDV' '= @B D' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DH' =%(%(D' =%(D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*D8' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*%(D' =-g6B fade*<3<*+p+0+0 ++0+0 +rP,-1(  R >#_ftnref20_ftnref2/ 0LDArial_> 00T ՜.+,D՜.+,    7On-screen Showiddsbd   ArialDefault Design,Radiological Weapons: Threats and ResponsesOutlineWhat are radiological weapons?Understanding the ThreatCAUSING PANIC and FEAR3Other motivations for using a radiological weapon?1Why radiological weapons are not nuclear weapons%Where does the confusion come from?4The probability of a radiological terrorist attackPreventing the RDD scenario Preparedness and ResponseCReducing the nations vulnerability to radiological weapons attackContact Information  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles  8@ _PID_HLINKSAL _ftnref2_ab0stewartstewart _ftnref2_stewartstewart   : r  S :  0  :  H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.&>Z 0 |j(  |X | C     | S | 0   l X 0H | 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.7pH3  0 &(  X  C      S H 0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.<d 0  &(  X  C      S ` 0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.> g 0 p&(  X  C      S  0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.Ip, 0 <(  X  C      S 0 0   >H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L^ 0 &(  X  C      S  0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.]@My 0  &(  X  C      S ` 0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.`a 0 P&(  X  C      S $ 0   (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.c=K 0 &(  X  C    $  S 4 $ 0  $ (H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.qUU  0 zr0  (   X   C    r   S  0   H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.PrP! o Pq-& a* - "$&.1(  R >#_ftnref20_ftnref2/ 0LDArial_> 00TTJܖx: 0ܖ" B$ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` \T( n  II@ADF  I JOQSVY\_ab gh  ln qrtu    Ob$yqX! z8R:3b$X.us؏N:3R$%jxY y؁3 GR$UoBeM/Rt7| R 0AAP!xI33@,~ ʚ;K7ʚ;g4BdBdt Jx: 0ppp@ <4dddd  0TJ <4!d!d  0Tg4:d:dXw'x: 0p@ pp80___PPT10 ?  O  =+Radiological Weapons: Threats and Responses,,(Outline%What you can do to reduce this threat&&$ What are radiological weapons?  Understanding the Threat$CAUSING PANIC and FEAR(2Other motivations for using a radiological weapon?33(" An RDD poses the fewest technical barriers " Radiological material is readily available " In nearly every country " Concealable " Portable " Massive economic impact " Resulting in area denial " Potentially the most expensive environmental decontamination cleanup in US history " Portray the government as powerless and weak " Coerce a population through fear or traumatization"+"+  ""